AN ANALYTIC APPROACH

I want to thank Lipscomb head coach Greg Brown for passing on this article to me on Penn's Steve Donahue and how he uses analytics to shape his offensive and defensive philosophy.  You can (and should) read the entire article here.  Below are some of the fascinating take aways I grabbed Coach Donahue:

"We basically had three rules on offense and three rules on defense, and they are both basically an analytic approach," Donahue said. "I want to get a layup or a dunk. When I'm attacking the basket, I ask my guys, 'Are you 95 percent certain that you're going to make this or get fouled?' If you're not, there are mechanisms in place to find my second thing, a standstill, in-rhythm three. The third thing is post up with two feet in the lane, one on one. If you get that, great; if not, it should be kicked. So everything we do evolves from that."

Offensive rebounds, Donahue said, fall into the layup/dunk category. If you have a 95 percent chance, go for it. If not, kick it out for a three, often the most-open shot in the game when defenses are scrambling after a missed shot. In the 2010 second-round NCAA win over Wisconsin, Cornell made four threes off offensive rebounds, half of the eight they made in the game. One season, Cornell made an incredible 35 percent of its threes after scrambles - a loose ball or mostly offensive rebounds. And that three is the most psychologically deflating in basketball.

During practices, they chart all those kind of situations and assign values.

"We try to give it a numerical value for each guy," Donahue said. "He got there and he made the right play or he made a bad decision - minus-2 for a bad decision, plus-2 for a good decision. We kind of do that as a motivating factor to our guys, so when we watch film, they know why you were minus-8 that day."

The Penn coach leaves very little to chance.

"We want to see a good dribbles-to-pass ratio," Donahue said. "Two passes to one dribble in a possession is great. If we start getting seven to one, now we know we're really playing well."

Think Spurs against Heat in the 2014 NBA Finals.

The defensive tenets mirror the three offensive goals.

"We don't want to give up a layup or dunk and we don't want to foul doing it," Donahue said. "We don't want to give up a standstill, in-rhythm three and no second shots."

Nothing is certain in basketball, but Donahue said his teams almost never lost when they got 10 made threes, 10 or fewer turnovers and 10 or fewer offensive rebounds for their opponent.

DEL HARRIS: 10 STEPS TO BECOMING A BETTER INDIVIDUAL REBOUNER

The following comes from "Winning Defense" by Del Harris:

1. To be an effective rebounder a player must make it a top priority. A player has to want to be a defender and a rebounder. They go hand in hand and the same dogged determination is required to become successful at each. Success in both begins in the mind, not in the size of the body.

2. Make the first contact when a shot goes up in the air. Hit a body and only then should a player look for and move toward the ball. The best method of blocking out is to step toward the nearest opponent and reverse pivot into him with a low, wide base. The object is to tie up the opponent’s lower legs with the tail end. Spread the upper arms out wide with the elbows bent and the hands pointing upward.

3. Keep the hand up for better rebounding.  Do not leave the hands down and do not reach back to hold the opponent as so many players do.  In position with a reasonably wide, low base with arms spread and the hands up, a rebounder can feel his opponent move.  He can move a step or two with him to keep him sealed behind him as he pursues the ball.

4. Determine to go after every ball.  If a player goes after twenty balls, he may get four or five.  If he goes after four or five, he won't get any.  Good rebounders go after more balls than average players do.  They aggressively pursue a ball after blocking out, not being content to get only the ones that come their direction.

5. Make space for yourself to rebound when the shot goes up.  The forward step into your man followed by a reverse pivot will help give more space between your body position and the goal.  It's easy to rebound a ball in front of the body, but very difficult to jump backwards to get one.

6. Be relentless. Good rebounders do not give up o n a ball because they get blocked out or seem to be out of position. They work to get themselves into the action by spinning around people or by going to the baseline under the blockout and knifing back up into the lane to battle for the ball. They jump the second and third time for the ball.

7. Get to the logical rebound angles. Go to the weak side for rebounds when possible. Seal off rebounders who have deep inside position. Push them deeper and lock them up so they can get out. Then chase down any long rebounds.

8. Guards should consider rebounding a challenge, especially the defensive rebound. On both ends of the court there are now more long rebounds than in previous years because of the proliferation of three-point shots. Long shots that are missed equal long rebounds. Guards who are alert and tough will claim a lot of these balls.

9. Plan for offensive rebounding by taking decent shots.  Shots that come within the framework of the offense should give the offense more of an opportunity to rebound because the shots are expected and a well-constructed offensive attack will take into consideration the positioning of rebounders.  

10. Study your teammates’ shooting habits and learn those of your opponents. This way, you’ll know whose shot rebounds softly and whose come off the board hard.

MAINTAINING YOUR CULTURE DURING GAME ACTION

The following comes from an article written by Steven McPhereson for the New York Times.  It's actually an article about Gregg Popovich (you can read the entire article here) but loved Stan Van Gundy's thoughts on system of play, and in particular about the culture of your team by now allow a bad shot by his team, even in a 2-for-1 situation:

At this year’s M.I.T. Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Stan Van Gundy, the former Miami Heat and Orlando Magic coach, talked about his approach to the end of a quarter when a team has a chance to squeeze in two possessions by taking a quick shot with 30 to 35 seconds left, otherwise known as a 2-for-1. It is mathematically advantageous, but Van Gundy didn’t want his teams taking bad shots.

“One of the things in coaching is you’re trying to create a style of play and a culture that this is how we play the game,” he said. “Every time you make an exception to that and say, ‘This is how we play the game but not in this case’ … then you’re breaking down your system a little bit.”

BASKETBALL THOUGHTS FROM COACH DON MEYER

The following came from Don Meyer during his three sessions at the LSU Lady Tiger 2004 Coaching Clinic.
 
4 THINGS YOU NEED TO BE GOOD OFFENSIVELY
#1  Inside Game (can get this through the following means: fast break, posting,           flashing, driving the basketball, and on the offensive glass).
#2 Outside Game (important to have in order to open up the inside game)
#3 Penetration Game
#4 Pull-Up Game (very few have a good pull-up game)

5 PHASES OF GREAT TEACHING
#1 Tell them what to do
#2 Show them how to do it
#3 Have them show you how to do it
#4 Correct them
#5 Repetition (Proper & Quick)

 

4 CHARACTERISTICS OF A GREAT POINT GUARD
#1 See the entire court and do what needs to be done.
#2 Go from dribble to a pass or dribble to shot quickly.
#3 Passing = timing, accuracy, quickness, deception.
#4 Masters the pass fake, shot fake and change of pace.

 “The overriding principle in our program is ‘team attitude.”  We want to be the best team on our schedule.  We want to play in such a way that when we win, we lose.  We want people to say ‘they play hard.’  We want to win when the ball doesn’t bounce right.”

“It’s OK to be angry.  It’s not OK to be quick to anger.  Don’t go to sleep angry.”

 

4 AREAS OF TEAM BUILDING

#1 Shared Ownership…”our” team!

#2 Shared Suffering...you learn more at a funeral than a wedding.

#3 Individual Responsibility...we never use the word ’individual’ unless it’s followed by the word ’responsibility.’

#4 Collect Pride

 

COACH MEYER ON SHOT SELECTION

1st Bad Shot = Bad Shot

2nd Bad Shot = Bad Player

3rd Bad Shot = Bad Coach

 

KEY ZONE PRINCIPLES

#1 Run...take advantage of mistakes

#2 Rebound...it is more difficult to blockout from a zone defense

#3 Attack the Rear of the Zone

#4 Keep your ball handler between two shooters

#5 Stretch the zone...it opens up the middle

 

COACH MEYER DICTAPHONE NOTES: SEGMENT #4

ODDS AND ENDS FROM COACH MEYER

The following came from Don Meyer during his three sessions at the LSU Lady Tiger 2004 Coaching Clinic.

4 THINGS YOU NEED TO BE GOOD OFFENSIVELY
#1 Inside Game (can get this through the following means: fast break, posting, flashing, driving the basketball, and on the offensive glass).

#2 Outside Game (important to have in order to open up the inside game)

#3 Penetration Game

#4 Pull-Up Game (very few have a good pull-up game)


5 PHASES OF GREAT TEACHING
#1 Tell them what to do

#2 Show them how to do it

#3 Have them show you how to do it

#4 Correct them

#5 Repetition (Proper & Quick)


4 CHARACTERISTICS OF A GREAT POINT GUARD
#1 See the entire court and do what needs to be done.

#2 Go from dribble to a pass or dribble to shot quickly.

#3 Passing = timing, accuracy, quickness, deception.

#4 Masters the pass fake, shot fake and change of pace.
“The overriding principle in our program is ‘team attitude.” We want to be the best team on our schedule. We want to play in such a way that when we win, we lose. We want people to say ‘they play hard.’ We want to win when the ball doesn’t bounce right.”

“It’s OK to be angry. It’s not OK to be quick to anger. Don’t go to sleep angry.”
    4 AREAS OF TEAM BUILDING #1 Shared Ownership…”our” team!

#2 Shared Suffering...you learn more at a funeral than a wedding.

#3 Individual Responsibility...we never use the word ’individual’ unless it’s followed by the word ’responsibility.’

#4 Collective Pride


COACH MEYER ON SHOT SELECTION
1st Bad Shot = Bad Shot
2nd Bad Shot = Bad Player
3rd Bad Shot = Bad Coach


KEY ZONE PRINCIPLES
#1 Run...take advantage of mistakes

#2 Rebound...it is more difficult to blockout from a zone defense

#3 Attack the Rear of the Zone

#4 Keep your ball handler between two shooters

#5 Stretch the zone...it opens up the middle

GETTING TO THE FREE THROW LINE

While at LSU, we believe a tremendous part of our offensive success was the ability to get to the free throw line. To verify our belief we have charted the following statistics from the 2002-2003 through 2008-2009:

LSU RECORD WHEN SHOOTING

MORE FT’S THAN OPPONENTS: 120-14 (89.6%)

LSU RECORD WHEN OPPONENT

SHOOTS MORE FREE THROWS: 50-35 (58.8%)

LSU RECORD WHEN SHOOTING

20 OR MORE FREE THROWS: 91-15 (85.9)

Free throw trips are critically important.  If we were to tally a .85 point per possession on offense, we'd be highly successful.  That means if we had 100 possessions in a game, we'd score 85 points.  Dean Smith, while at North Carolina. set a goal of .85 for his Tar Heels.  Hypothetically, if you were to come down the court 100 times and create a 2-shot foul on each possession, you could shoot a mere 50% and your point per possession would be a staggering 1.00.  In that same 100 possession game you'd score 100 points!

Getting to the free throw line is huge!

If getting to the free throw line is so important we need to understand how we can get there on a consistent basis. The first part of that is that we want to emphasize getting to the free throw line.  We can do this a variety of ways:

1. Make sure our team knows it is a priority and why.

2. Making sure we are emphasizing it in practice.  Possibly working on our offense and utilizing the list below as some restrictions.

3. Talk to them statistically in practice and games about your trips to the free throw line.  We also created a Free Throw Trip Percentage Per Possession to go along with Points and Turnovers Per Possession via Dean Smith's Possession Chart.

4. Make sure when showing video both individually as well as to your team that you point out good and bad possessions based on doing things to help you get to the free throw line.  It needs to be a part of their basketball IQ as to how to get there and why it is important.

The following is a list of ways to put pressure on the defense and create situations where they will foul us.

#1 TRANSITION
Intelligently but aggressively beating your opponent down the floor...running the lanes...sprinting to the rim...passing ahead...attacking the goal.

#2 LOW POST TOUCHES
This starts with our post players’ ability to “get a piece” of the paint — to bury the defender...we then need for a proper feed to the post...the combination of these two leaves the defense with basically two choices — allow the easy shot or foul.

#3 PATIENCE
Aggressively but patiently attacking the defense...having great shot selection...ball reversal…give the defense an opportunity to foul...quick shot teams don’t get to the free throw line...this of course would also cover shot selection.

#4 TAKE CARE OF THE BASKETBALL
You can’t get to the free throw line if you don’t take care of the ball...be strong with the ball...utilize your sweeps...pass away from the defense.

#5 SPACING
Keep the defense spread...this allows us room to cut and drive which puts the defense in poor position to defense which leads to fouling.

#6 CUTTING & SCREENING
There is nothing more difficult for the defense to handle than cutting and screening when it is executed well -- including screens on the ball as well as off the ball.

#7 PERIMETER POSTING
Few perimeters players know how to defend on the block.

#8 OFFENSIVE BOARDS
A great number of 3-point plays occur on put backs...it is difficult to defend an offensive rebound.

#9 SHOT FAKE/PASS FAKE
Best was to get a defender out of stance and out of position.

#10 DRIBBLE USAGE
Attack the gaps of a zone defense with the dribble puts pressure on the defense...driving the basketball is also effective in getting to the free throw line it combined with good spacing.

#11 PERIMETER FLASHES
Flashing into the middle of the zone — paint touches — forces the defense to play in a very reactionary manner.

#12 GOOD BALL MOVEMENT
Create closeout situations...inside-out or ball reversal.

MAJOR KEY: Combine several of the previous mentioned factors and not only will you get to the free throw line but you will also have great offensive possessions. An example would be a possession of good SPACING, with BALL MOVEMENT, tied in with CUTTING & SCREENING. There is nothing more difficult to defend than cutting & screening when coupled with ball movement.

Of course, a solid separation in free throw shooting between you and your opponent is also an indicator as to how well you are playing defense and we will discuss this at another time.

KEVIN SIVILS RULES FOR SHOT SELECTION

Got this from Coach Kevin Sivils' basketball newsletter. Sign up to get on the mailing lise at: http://www.kcsbasketball.com/

1) Shooting is not an equal opportunity skill. The best shooters get to take the bulk of the shots.

2) Every player must be able to make lay-ups and free throws or they should not be on the court.

3) Players must recognize they are open and get ready to shoot before receiving the ball.

4) Do not take a good shot and turn it into a bad one! This means don’t take a shot that is open, within shooting range and ruin it by rushing it, shooting with bad form, not being squared up or any other means by which a player can ruin a shot.

5) What defines both an open shot and a good shot is different for every player. Make sure your players individually recognize what is both a good and open shot for that individual player.

6) Players don’t get to shoot just because they want to.

7) Did I say shooting is not an equal opportunity skill?

8) Some shots that are good shots early in the game are not good shots late in the game when protecting a lead. Take the time to teach shot selection and constantly reinforce it practice. Games are a bad time to punish a player for poor shot selection, but sometimes a coach must sit a player down for just that reason. The teaching principle that applies here is that players cannot be expected to do something that has not been both taught AND emphasized in practice.

DEAN SMITH ON CAROLINA SHOT SELECTION

We try to promote opportunities which lend themselves to the percentage shot. We believe in getting the ball inside for the shot whenever possible. Outside shots are always available. We have no reservations about shooting from the outside. However, we prefer doing so after the ball has gone inside or to the baseline initially. We then can be more confident about our offensive rebounding. Also, we will have placed pressure on the the defense to foul us while we moved the ball inside. This is vitally important. Some teams tend to overlook the importance of setting up conditions which make the defense more prone to fouling. At North Carolina, we consider this a major part of our offensive strategy.

Since we believe it is essential to move the defense before it can be penetrated, we emphasize the importance of passing several times before a shot is take against a set defend.

How do we define a good shot? The amount of defensive pressure, length of the shot, and individual player characteristics are each factors which determine what is or is not a good shot. Much depends on the shooting skill of the the individual player. Each man must be aware of his percentages from various positions on the court. For some players, a lightly guarded twenty-foot jumper will be a higher percentage shot than on taken at close range among a number of defensive players. The shooter must have confidence that his shot will go in. The other four men must assume it will not go through the net in order to provide good offensive rebounding protection and defensive balance.

Although good board coverage is designed into all our offensive plans, I would not consider rebounding a major factor responsible for our overall high field-goal percentage. I would be more inclined to attribute it to good shot selection and our pressure defense, which gives us some easy scoring opportunities off the fast break.

From "Basketball Multiple Offense and Defense" by Dean Smith