As Beckley wrote:
Henry Abbott noted that late-game offense tends to be horrible, and wondered if those timeouts were not, as advertised, helping teams score baskets ... but might instead be very effective at strengthening the defense. Subbing in the best defenders, settling on the team's plan to handle different likely plays ... maybe that's what matters most about timeouts.
In a follow-up, I presented a further wrinkle: that as useful as timeouts can be, there are plenty of times when a timeout hurts the offense. As much as anything, they give coaches, many with insecure jobs, the chance to put their imprint on the final moments and fulfill the perhaps ill-placed expectations of their profession. But do they do that at the expense of spontaneous play, which can lead to easy buckets?
The article in lengthy and chalked full of statistical data to support these threories. It is worth reading at: http://es.pn/A1JUQW
Mason also went on to garner an opinion from Shane Battier who fell back into the successful strategies of his college coach, Mike Krzyzewski:
So why do offenses appear to shoot worse coming out of timeouts?
Miami Heat forward Shane Battier cites lessons learned from Mike Krzyzewski at Duke, telling Heat Index’s Tom Haberstroh: “I was born and raised in the Coach K school of ‘in closing situations, not taking a timeout,’” Battier says. "Defenses aren’t as prepared after a late bucket to tie or take the lead because emotionally teams aren’t as prepared to get that stop. If you call timeout you allow a team to set their defense, focus in. Everyone knows exactly what everyone runs anyway.”
Battier does like to use the time afforded by a timeout to check out the opponent’s personnel, which helps him anticipate the play they are likely to run. But in his mind, you can forfeit the emotional and strategic advantages that timeouts are meant to provide by calling one.
I argued that coaches can fall into the trap of "Hero Coaching" because there is social and psychological pressure to do something, anything, to tangibly impact the end of the game. Battier was more blunt: “Coaches want to show that they're worth the millions that they're getting paid, which is fair. And the public would say, "He drew up a great play, he’s earning his money."
While coaches like Gregg Popovich and Erik Spoelstra are famous for calling elegant plays out of timeouts, many NBA timeouts result in dead simple plays, like a high pick-and-roll or an isolation where most of the players watch the ball-handler.
Battier would prefer to “take it in, rush it up and get it to your best attacker going to the hoop,” he says. "I'm surprised at how many times coaches call a timeout to draw up an ISO. It's like, ‘Really? You took a timeout to draw up an ISO?’ That's my pet peeve as a player watching the game."
Worst of all, it doesn't seem to work.
